BROTHERS IN ARMS
On 21st of April, China's ambassador to France Lu Shaye in a TV interview questioned the sovereignty of the former Soviet Republics answering to the question about status of Ukrainian Crimea [1]. Dark irony is that the statement comes shortly after the French president visited China to do what he does best “macroning” or appeasing a dictator.
Given the ambassador statement, recent military “training” near Taiwan and Xi’s call to China’s parliament to prepare for a war, it seems that a mask of kind-hearted China is going to the past. A real face appears though, the face of the country that “reeducates” a million of Uygurs and teaches the world how to honor human rights at the same time [2]. Any similarities with Russia?
The situation we are in is the direct consequence of the decades of appeasement of the dictatorships both Russian and Chinese. Instead of a strategy of deterrence towards the countries that pose the threat to the civilized world, many countries pursued an idea of immediate gains by pouring money and giving access to key technologies to Russia and China.
First two targets on possible Chinese conquest could be Taiwan and Spratly islands. If Chinese government manages to establish a control of both, it will have a detrimental impact on the people's lifes in the world. Apart from bringing destruction and suffering to Taiwan in a case of an invasion, China would get control over 20 percent of the global semiconductor industry and key technologies in microchip manufacturing [3]. There is no need to stress the importance of semiconductors for the modern world economy.
Not much news one hears about the small pieces of land in South China Sea - Spratly Islands [4]. At the same time, about 20% of all global trade is carried by the cargo ships through the waters nearby. China for quite a time has had claims over the islands. The one who controls them has a direct impact on the supply chains of many world companies and industries.
Would China use the control over the aforementioned assets as a weapon? Take look at how Putin used gas pipes to Europe during the last winter. That can give us a hint.
What could be possible actions for the worldwide community in the given situation? There are short term and long term actions. Short term actions are undoubtedly the military support to Ukraine. Ukrainian victory will show two things: small countries can defeat large power and the world can unite over the values, not only good contracts and benefits. Long term we need to build a strategy for foreign affairs with the core that is based on the values of humanity. Policy values over money will bring world architecture where there is no need to sacrifice the best of people to correct mistakes of the past.
What will we choose? The coming years are going to reveal.
[2] https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-xinjiang-uyghurs-muslims-repression-genocide-human-rights
[3] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Semiconductor_industry_in_Taiwan
[4] https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/18/five-countries-other-than-china-most-dependent-on-the-south-china-sea.html
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